Food prices are a major source of inflation in Saudi Arabia which rose to 11% in February

 Ramadan, which began at sunset on April 12th in much of the world, is a month of both fasting and feasting, as long days of restraint give way to big meals after sunset. Celebrations were curtailed last year because of the covid-19 pandemic. With looser restrictions now in some Arab countries, families are looking towards a more festive holiday. Yet many will struggle to put food on the table.

The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 960m people do not have enough food to be healthy. Some 64m of them are scattered across 12 Arab states. That is about one in six Arabs. Wars and economic crises have made hunger a chronic fact of life for some. And even stable governments are worried about the effect of rising global food prices.

This problem is most serious in Syria and Yemen, where about half of the population is hungry (see graph). Syrian staple food baskets (bread, rice, lentils, oil, sugar) were 222% more expensive in February than they were a year ago. It currently costs more than twice the monthly salary of the average state worker.In Yemen United Nations Warn of the oncoming famine. Aid agencies have cut rations due to tight budgets. Fuel shortages in both countries are pushing up prices.

Meat was already an affordable luxury for many Syrians. Dairy products and fruits are rapidly becoming the same. Bread, the cheapest source of calories, is often no longer associated with the diet. is Meals. Still, getting subsidized bread from the government can take hours to line up. Before the war, Syria cultivated enough wheat to meet that need. A study released last year by the University of Humboldt in Berlin used satellite data to find that 943,000 hectares of arable land were lost between 2010 and 2018 (a reduction of about 20%).

Other countries are tackling new challenges.Full of Lebanon last year Fat ToshA vegetable salad topped with toasted bread costs £ 6,000 ($ 4) for a family of five. Since then, the financial crisis has caused the currency to lose about 90% of its value. Food prices have risen 417% over the past year.

Many Lebanese foods are imported, but local products are also more expensive.the same Fat Tosh It currently costs over £ 18,000.To provide a simple service Iftar According to American University in Beirut, Ramadan’s nightly fast (main course of soup, salad and chicken) is 2.5 times the monthly minimum wage of £ 675,000. In supermarkets, there are fights over subsidized staple foods such as cooking oil. Currently, some stores are distributed under armed guards. A man was killed in a food drive on April 13.

In January, the bank Goldman Sachs predicted the start of a “super cycle” of commodities as demand increased due to deregulation of pandemics and a weaker dollar. This is a concern in Egypt, which imports about 13 million tonnes of wheat annually for subsidized bread. The budget is based on an average price of about $ 200 per ton. Earlier this year, prices remained around $ 240, partly due to the impact of a new export tax in Russia. Egypt’s finance minister says the government may start hedging wheat contracts to protect it from future increases. Another staple, the price of rice, is also the highest in the last few years.

Inflation has been kept low so far due to sluggish demand in Egypt. Food prices have been flat or have fallen in recent months. But they may start climbing later this year. Even a small increase is harmful. One-third of Egyptians live on less than £ 736 ($ 47) a month. The global food price index has risen for the 10th consecutive month, reaching its highest level since mid-2014 in March. Food prices are a major source of inflation in Saudi Arabia. It rose 11% in February.

In the United Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates), One of the wealthiest countries in the world, wealthy citizens and foreigners are willing to drop $ 100 per person for the Ramadan buffet. Still, even there, the minister discussed the idea of ​​food price controls.The· United Arab Emirates From tomatoes to quinoa, we started growing our own food in the desert, but we still import 90% of what we eat. A weak greenback means high supermarket prices, as the currency is fixed to the dollar, as in most Gulf countries. The grocery store was told to offer a discount during Ramadan.It’s a luxury United Arab Emirates I can afford to buy it. However, elsewhere in the region, it may be lean for the next few years.